Saturday, September 09, 2006
this is a work in progress rant
sell your non-free stock next week if you havent already(trade fast, market can give a blow off top or a tank,,it can go either direction-going 'higher' wouldnt suprise me just for options expire), (i simply just dont see traders drinking the cnbc koolaide much longer) and we have a perfect catalyst: sunday ABC tv is going to air their version of 911. michael moore/soros/buffett had their shot at it and now another view is going to be protrayed. keep in mind ABC=disney,, so we will be getting the softer version of a totaaly dif story. (MORAL HAZARD) i suspect the movie may have un-nerving effects in the markets near term. this is an 'easy gimme' for wallstreet to tank the markets sharply,, not to mention daytraders are now allowed to use 10-1 margin, 4-1 is max allowed by reg brokers,, but even they are somewhere in the 6-1 camp if i read their details correctly lately per their pr's. back in may06 we saw japan just drop hard and fast,, we seemed to go down but not at the same rate,,,,,,,,, well i think its our time soon.
now i have alot to say,, but for now just read this article,, and think about 1987+1998 when currency crashes happened,, ours can go either way on the chart,, and technically our govt is bankrupt.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22789705
fwiw- wallstreet hopes to distract investors by thinning out the banks on the s&p,, fill it with some other sector or not,, and let the scoreboard look good for as long as possible,, just remember the scoreboards are not the same as 1930,2000 or 2003 bottom,, they do that to 'hide' the problems. i call it putting cheap paint on an old barn. cramer is noted for spraying the old paint and so is damn near all cnbc anals. (late cycle calls for volitility or fund dumping)
friday GROW (peaked) hit its all time high $34.00 momo crowd 'found it' problem is they are using up to 10-1 margin allowed at http://www.daytrading.net/index.html anyway,, that group is trying to pump GROW to 50-100 and spamming stocksplit,,, eh,, i tried to warn people these clowns dont even understand the company or the sharestructure. they may be able to get some wild moves going,, but its cheap to wait until the volume just 'dies off to nearly nothing' and pretty good odds a nasty dip,, always happens as they leave the stock,, except this time they can get real nasty margin calls. $8 would not surprise me down the road.
this is very dangerous imho,, so many traders useing such high margin risk. its only a matter of time that the rolling horse swapping etf's suddenly 'stop' and cash out. BAC noted they have been selling thier holding down to 55% in the general markets.. (the funny thing is they announce this,, and the next day they put out a pump on LMT for another $5,, guess they are shooting for every nickle they can get. lmt promptly stalled down $2.
defense contractors are so at risk of getting the govt purse strings getting cut.. our govt is technically bk and the announcements have already started in several sectors. meanwhile companies are trying to pull fast ones on the market with 'stockbuybacks' -cramer keeps pumping this idea,, finally BA shareholders wised up,, its not a sharebuyback its the employeestocksoption sell program. ('stockbuybacks' just prop the e's up for a later date-----companies need to step up to the plate and pay their people instead of the stock options if they are big co's like BA etc-this crap of having the stock market pay for labor smells,, its not like they are some small start up trying to conserve cash)
F ford all the rage lately,, funny how nobody says a word about how the insiders have used that company as an atm machine for years and done nothing but go down... those stock options need a bit of SEC review,, along with alot of other companies.
shouldnt be much longer for the credit exposed (all lenders+underwriters) to start looking like the hb's. alot of smoke and mirror math goes on in those sectors imho. there is a reason the s&p wants to thin out their bank weighting.
oil taking a nasty hit lately with the metals,, the IMF has been targetting them,, and again came out this w/e with a 60% target drop on copper. of course goldbugs are in denial,, they forget the IMF always steals their thunder.- bet those traders are on high margin too. (frank holmes of GROW even came on tv a few days ago and implied a real soft market for some time to come----------since he has beat the street for years in the commodity sector,, dont you think he might know what he is talking about????-yes!, i suspect this can last for several months. the GROW stock hitting a peak may be what becomes later down the road, that commodities did indeed peak out of cycle. we shall see.
cramer busy pumping the same old stocks as he always does,,, i have come to the conclusion he doesnt know how to find 'growth' ie: SYX from the low 7's,, internet computer needs shopping,, with a product mix/price that is right for the times-for now it is 'peaked out' at 13.. for now i think all retail is peaked out until halloween.
GS has been busy getting companies to eat poison,, that may screw up shorts -who knows??
GS got PMI to eat the GS dump of PMIshares,, and then PMI borrows money to do a sharebuyback/employee stock sell program............. makes you wonder how they ran the biz too dont it???????
GS- was also able to unload alot of california r/e to BXP,, motleyfOOLZ and cramer have also pumped those sectors to death,, its only a matter of time before someone does the math on yeild/value/risk.
stocks to watch:
LVS 69- (GROW recently took a position), eddie lampert just sold some other stocks,, he has cash. not pumping,, but i suspect he will buy a restuarant or a casino soon,, he likes stocks with 'return customers' and cash or credit with a R/E connection. casinos LVS+WYNN also give him asian exposure.
MA 60-short it down and go long EFX 36
now i have alot to say,, but for now just read this article,, and think about 1987+1998 when currency crashes happened,, ours can go either way on the chart,, and technically our govt is bankrupt.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22789705
fwiw- wallstreet hopes to distract investors by thinning out the banks on the s&p,, fill it with some other sector or not,, and let the scoreboard look good for as long as possible,, just remember the scoreboards are not the same as 1930,2000 or 2003 bottom,, they do that to 'hide' the problems. i call it putting cheap paint on an old barn. cramer is noted for spraying the old paint and so is damn near all cnbc anals. (late cycle calls for volitility or fund dumping)
friday GROW (peaked) hit its all time high $34.00 momo crowd 'found it' problem is they are using up to 10-1 margin allowed at http://www.daytrading.net/index.html anyway,, that group is trying to pump GROW to 50-100 and spamming stocksplit,,, eh,, i tried to warn people these clowns dont even understand the company or the sharestructure. they may be able to get some wild moves going,, but its cheap to wait until the volume just 'dies off to nearly nothing' and pretty good odds a nasty dip,, always happens as they leave the stock,, except this time they can get real nasty margin calls. $8 would not surprise me down the road.
this is very dangerous imho,, so many traders useing such high margin risk. its only a matter of time that the rolling horse swapping etf's suddenly 'stop' and cash out. BAC noted they have been selling thier holding down to 55% in the general markets.. (the funny thing is they announce this,, and the next day they put out a pump on LMT for another $5,, guess they are shooting for every nickle they can get. lmt promptly stalled down $2.
defense contractors are so at risk of getting the govt purse strings getting cut.. our govt is technically bk and the announcements have already started in several sectors. meanwhile companies are trying to pull fast ones on the market with 'stockbuybacks' -cramer keeps pumping this idea,, finally BA shareholders wised up,, its not a sharebuyback its the employeestocksoption sell program. ('stockbuybacks' just prop the e's up for a later date-----companies need to step up to the plate and pay their people instead of the stock options if they are big co's like BA etc-this crap of having the stock market pay for labor smells,, its not like they are some small start up trying to conserve cash)
F ford all the rage lately,, funny how nobody says a word about how the insiders have used that company as an atm machine for years and done nothing but go down... those stock options need a bit of SEC review,, along with alot of other companies.
shouldnt be much longer for the credit exposed (all lenders+underwriters) to start looking like the hb's. alot of smoke and mirror math goes on in those sectors imho. there is a reason the s&p wants to thin out their bank weighting.
oil taking a nasty hit lately with the metals,, the IMF has been targetting them,, and again came out this w/e with a 60% target drop on copper. of course goldbugs are in denial,, they forget the IMF always steals their thunder.- bet those traders are on high margin too. (frank holmes of GROW even came on tv a few days ago and implied a real soft market for some time to come----------since he has beat the street for years in the commodity sector,, dont you think he might know what he is talking about????-yes!, i suspect this can last for several months. the GROW stock hitting a peak may be what becomes later down the road, that commodities did indeed peak out of cycle. we shall see.
cramer busy pumping the same old stocks as he always does,,, i have come to the conclusion he doesnt know how to find 'growth' ie: SYX from the low 7's,, internet computer needs shopping,, with a product mix/price that is right for the times-for now it is 'peaked out' at 13.. for now i think all retail is peaked out until halloween.
GS has been busy getting companies to eat poison,, that may screw up shorts -who knows??
GS got PMI to eat the GS dump of PMIshares,, and then PMI borrows money to do a sharebuyback/employee stock sell program............. makes you wonder how they ran the biz too dont it???????
GS- was also able to unload alot of california r/e to BXP,, motleyfOOLZ and cramer have also pumped those sectors to death,, its only a matter of time before someone does the math on yeild/value/risk.
stocks to watch:
LVS 69- (GROW recently took a position), eddie lampert just sold some other stocks,, he has cash. not pumping,, but i suspect he will buy a restuarant or a casino soon,, he likes stocks with 'return customers' and cash or credit with a R/E connection. casinos LVS+WYNN also give him asian exposure.
MA 60-short it down and go long EFX 36
# posted by tagthatstock @ 3:01 AM
